极地研究

极地研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 447-455.DOI: 10.13679/j.jdyj.20180069447

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于海冰影响的北极航线亚欧集装箱运输经济性研究

骆巧云1  刘伟1  寿建敏2   

  1. 1.上海海事大学, 交通运输学院, 上海 201306
    2.上海海事大学, 经济管理学院, 上海 201306
  • 收稿日期:2018-12-05 修回日期:2019-01-26 出版日期:2019-12-30 发布日期:2019-12-30
  • 通讯作者: 刘伟
  • 基金资助:
    中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会“一带一路”建设2016年专项课题(BR2016-02)、上海海事大学研究生创新基金(2017ycx070)资助

Economic viability of Asia-Europe container transport through Arctic routes based on Arctic sea ice

Luo Qiaoyun1, Liu Wei1, Shou Jianmin2   

  1. 1.College of Transport & Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China;
    2.School of Economics & Management, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
  • Received:2018-12-05 Revised:2019-01-26 Online:2019-12-30 Published:2019-12-30
  • Contact: Wei LIU

PDF (PC)

1412

摘要： 为了探究海冰影响下北极航线通航的可行性, 从经济性角度, 首先走北极航线选取ARC4、ARC5和ARC7三种冰区加强等级船, 采用全年货运量、单位运输成本和年利润多个经济性指标, 以上海港至鹿特丹港为例, 通过与走苏伊士运河传统航线的普通船比较, 对北极航运集装箱运输经济性进行分析; 其次, 研究了不同起讫港、不同载箱量对北极航线运输经济性的影响。结果表明: 在三种冰区加强等级船中, ARC5级船的经济性最佳, 可提高货运量, 降低单位运输成本, 全年总利润大幅增加; ARC7级船尽管延长了北极通航时间, 但由于高造价, 经济性欠佳; 不同冰区加强船之间, 各项指标差异较大。相较于冰区加强船等级差异, 不同起点港口选择对于经济性影响较小; 在4 000—5 000 TEU区间, 随着运载量规模增大, 对单位运输成本影响不大, 但年利润方面, ARC5船舶可增50%以上。

关键词: 北极航线, 海冰, 冰区加强等级船, 经济性, 载箱量

Abstract: This study investigates the viability of Arctic navigation based on sea ice. First, the costs of container transport from Shanghai to Rotterdam through Arctic routes using ice-strengthened ships (Arc4, Arc5, Arc7) are compared with that of the traditional Suez Canal Route. Economic indices are annual cargo volume, unit transportation cost and annual profit. Second, the impact of different starting ports and different carrying capacity on the economy of the Arctic routes is analyzed. Results show that among the three types of ice-strengthened ships, the economy of the Arc5 is the best. By offering a large freight volume, this ship reduces the unit transportation cost and greatly increases the achievable annual profit. In terms of Arc7, although its Arctic navigation time has extended, it is economically unsatisfactory due to high building cost. Results vary greatly between ships. In contrast, the impact of ports origin on shipping economy is less than the grade of ice-strengthening on ships. In the 4000–5000 TEU range, the increased carrying capacity provides little impact on the unit transportation cost, but Arc5 can increase the annual profit by more than 50%.

Key words: Arctic routes, sea ice, ice strengthening of ships, economy, carrying capacity