极地研究

极地研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 219-238.DOI: 10.13679/j.jdyj.20210056

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

韧性视域下北极航行风险级联效应分析

马晓雪1,2,何佩龙1,乔卫亮3,刘阳2   

  1. 1 大连海事大学, 公共管理与人文艺术学院, 辽宁 大连 116026;
    2 大连海事大学, 航运经济与管理学院, 辽宁 大连 116026;
    3 大连海事大学, 轮机工程学院, 辽宁 大连 116026
  • 收稿日期:2021-07-05 修回日期:2021-09-29 出版日期:2022-06-30 发布日期:2022-06-15
  • 通讯作者: 何佩龙
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大专项(20HQ012)和国家社会科学基金(19BZZ104)

On the cascading effect of Arctic navigation risk based on the perspective of resilience

Ma Xiaoxue1,2, He Peilong1, Qiao Weiliang3, Liu Yang2   

  1. 1College of Public Administration and Humanities, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China;
    2School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China;
    3Marine Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China

  • Received:2021-07-05 Revised:2021-09-29 Online:2022-06-30 Published:2022-06-15

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摘要： 北极航线的通航环境具有高度不确定性与复杂性, 科学认识并有效管控由此衍生的航行风险是充分利用北极航线资源的重要基础。为此, 本文在韧性理论视角下, 分析北极航行风险, 构建北极航行风险的韧性认知体系, 明确风险间的内在逻辑, 建立北极航行风险级联效应分析模型, 借助模糊认知图开展多情景下风险仿真模拟。结果表明: 在北极常态化风险环境(海冰和低温)下, 风险级联效应共产生四个阶段, 最容易导致“获援概率极低”、“狭窄水道”、“维护保养不到位”等风险的产生; 在常态化风险环境耦合“船员适任性低”、“国际交流渠道狭窄”诱致性风险的情景下, 风险级联效应共产生两个阶段, 最容易导致“维护保养不到位”、“获援概率极低”、“北极航行资料缺失”等风险的产生。

关键词: 韧性理论, 级联效应, 风险分析, 模糊认知图, 北极航线

Abstract:

The navigation environment of the Arctic route is highly uncertain and complex. Scientific understanding and effective control of the derived navigation risks is an important basis for full utilization of the Arctic route resources. Therefore, from the perspective of resilience theory, this paper analyzes the risk of Arctic navigation, constructs the resilience cognitive system of Arctic navigation risk, defines the internal logic between risks, establishes the cascade effect analysis model of Arctic navigation risk, and carries out the risk simulation under multiple scenarios with fuzzy cognitive map. The results show that in the Arctic normal risk environment (sea ice and low temperature), the risk cascade effect has four stages, which is most likely to lead to the risks of “extremely low probability of assistance”, “narrow waterway” and “inadequate maintenance”; in the normal risk environment coupling of “low crew suitability” and “narrow international communication channels”, the risk cascade effect has two stages, which is most likely to lead to risks such as “inadequate maintenance”, “extremely low probability of assistance” and “lack of Arctic navigation data”.

Key words: resilience theory, cascade effect, risk analysis, fuzzy cognitive map, Arctic routes