Abstract: To systematically investigate the influence of human factors on navigation safety in polar waters, the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System-Polar Navigation Analysis (HFACS-PNA) model was proposed. The model combines the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) and Performance Influence Factor (PIF) with the actual characteristics of navigation scenarios in polar waters and uses survey data and the forward cloud generator algorithm based on a cloud model. Among 49 subfactors in the model, the critical factors that lead to ship officers making errors when navigating in polar waters were identified. The results show that the critical behavioral factors are based on 28 subfactors including unsafe supervision, preconditions for unsafe acts, and aspects of unsafe acts. The identified critical influence factors can help researchers and safety managers take adequate measures to improve safety and prevent the occurrence of human error during navigation in polar waters.

Key words: ship navigation, polar waters, human factor, HFACS, cloud model