Abstract: Considering waiting time and sea ice, this article employs a modified gravity model by substituting sailing time for shipping distance, quantitatively evaluating influence on trade potential of China and its affected area by using the Arctic navigation. Results show that: (1) There is a negative correlation between sailing time and total value of import and export. If sailing time is reduced by 1%, total volume of import and export of China will be increased by 0.6590%. (2) The presence of sea ice has a great impact on trade potential. At present with sea ice, trade potential of China can be enhanced by 10.95% averagely, and that of its affected area can be increased by 12.02% for northern coastal area and 11.22% for eastern coastal area, due to the natural advantage in shipping distance of the "Arctic Passage ". But once sea ice melts and the "Arctic Passage" is in full navigation, trade potential of China and its affected area will be further increased, and the promotion effect will reach more than 20%.

Key words: Arctic route, sailing time, sea ice, trade potential, gravity model