极地研究

极地研究 ›› 2015, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4): 429-438.DOI: 10.13679/j.jdyj.2015.4.429

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

“北极航道”开通与中国及其受影响区域的贸易增长潜力分析

李珍 胡麦秀   

  1. 上海海洋大学，上海 201306
  • 收稿日期:2015-04-15 修回日期:2015-05-20 出版日期:2015-12-30 发布日期:2015-12-30
  • 通讯作者: 李珍
  • 基金资助:

    2014年上海市浦江人才计划（C类）项目——北极航道开通与中国的潜在战略利益研究

THE IMPACT OF USING THE ARCTIC ROUTE ON TRADE IN CHINA AND ITS ACCESSIBLE AREAS

Li Zhen , Hu Maixiu   

  • Received:2015-04-15 Revised:2015-05-20 Online:2015-12-30 Published:2015-12-30
  • Contact: Zhen Li

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摘要： 在考虑船舶等待时间和海冰因素的基础上，以航行时间替代航运距离，对传统的贸易引力模型进行修正，量化评估了“北极航道”开通对中国及其受影响区域的贸易增长潜力。结果表明：(1)航行时间与进出口总额之间呈负相关关系，航行时间每减少1%，将使中国的进出口贸易总额增加0.6590%。(2)海冰因素会对贸易潜力的提升产生较大影响。在存在海冰的情况下，由于“北极航道”在航运距离上的天然优势，将使中国的贸易潜力增长10.95%，使中国受影响的北部沿海地区和东部沿海地区的贸易潜力分别增长12.02%和11.22%；一旦海冰消融、“北极航道”全面通航，中国及其受影响的北部沿海地区和东部沿海地区的贸易潜力则会得到进一步提升，提升效应将达到20%以上。

关键词: 北极航道, 航行时间, 海冰, 贸易潜力, 引力模型

Abstract: Considering waiting time and sea ice, this article employs a modified gravity model by substituting sailing time for shipping distance, quantitatively evaluating influence on trade potential of China and its affected area by using the Arctic navigation. Results show that: (1) There is a negative correlation between sailing time and total value of import and export. If sailing time is reduced by 1%, total volume of import and export of China will be increased by 0.6590%. (2) The presence of sea ice has a great impact on trade potential. At present with sea ice, trade potential of China can be enhanced by 10.95% averagely, and that of its affected area can be increased by 12.02% for northern coastal area and 11.22% for eastern coastal area, due to the natural advantage in shipping distance of the "Arctic Passage ". But once sea ice melts and the "Arctic Passage" is in full navigation, trade potential of China and its affected area will be further increased, and the promotion effect will reach more than 20%.

Key words: Arctic route, sailing time, sea ice, trade potential, gravity model