Chinese Journal of Polar Research

Chinese Journal of Polar Research ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 326-335.DOI: 10.13679/j.jdyj.20220303

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Analysis on the navigable window period of ships in the Northwest Passage of the Arctic

Wang Fagen1, Hu Shenping1, Jiao Xixin2, Fu Shanshan3, Xi Yongtao1, Han Bing4   

  1. 1Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China;
    2College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China;
    3College of Transportation and Communication, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China;
    4Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute, Shanghai 200135, China
  • Online:2023-06-30 Published:2023-06-20

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Abstract: Melting of Arctic sea ice makes navigation of the Arctic Northwest Route (ANR) possible, and it is necessary to determine the navigable window of the ANR. Focusing on the ice conditions and the complex navigation environment of the ANR, a navigation risk assessment model was constructed based on system dynamics, and the process risk assessment method in the temporal dimension was proposed for determining the navigable window for shipping on the ANR. Six routes were established as simulation scenarios, and in combination with objective data of monthly average changes in wind, fog, waves, and sea ice during 2015–2021, the navigability risk for shipping on the ANR was simulated. Results showed that the navigable window of the ANR is from late August to early September; and that the optimal route is via Amundsen Bay–Prince of Wales Strait–Barrow Strait–Baffin Bay and Amundsen Bay–Victoria Strait–Peel Strait–Baffin Bay. The navigability risk for shipping on the two routes is relatively low. Overall, the ANR generally has a relatively high level of navigability.

Key words: Arctic, Northwest Passage, risk assessment, ship navigation, navigable window period, system dynamics