Abstract: The development of energy projects in the Arctic and the decrease of Arctic sea ice extent have opened up new channels for China to import natural gas, which will enhance the security of China’s energy supply. In China, the demand for natural gas is increasing rapidly, and can be met by large-scale import of Arctic liquefied natural gas (LNG). We developed an optimization model to examine the economic and reliability of LNG vessel fleet deployment along the Arctic shipping routes. The model includes a full cost analysis and analyses of navigation conditions of the Arctic passage and the seasonal influence of sea ice conditions on fleet deployment. Using layered modeling and optimization and considering LNG vessels with different loading capacities, we found the optimal fleet configuration for a case study of an annual import of 7 million tons of LNG. The full-cost shipping model established in this paper lays the foundation for economic analyse of Arctic LNG transportation fleets, and provides a tool to support operations of fleets in icy waters.

Key words: Arctic passage, LNG trade, full cost model, LNG fleet, economic analysis