Abstract:

In recent years, with the opening and successful navigation of the Arctic ice waterway, the safety of ship navigation in polar waters has been highly valued. Because there are many variable factors affecting the safety of ship traffic in the ice area, it is necessary to analyze the process risk for en-route navigation in the Arctic ice waterway. Combining the characteristics of maritime traffic risks, the effects of special attributes, such as low temperature, ice drift, and high latitude, were evaluated on the navigation safety of ships. The navigation risk on the Northeast Route in the Arctic was analyzed and then the navigational risk transition model for ships in the Arctic northeast route was constructed. The Markov process theory was introduced to establish a cloud simulation model based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Algorithm, thereby simulating the risk of ship navigation in the Arctic with continuous time. This study indicates that during the summer season, the risk of navigation in the northeastern route of the Arctic is as low as reasonably navigable. The risk level continuously changes with time, showing an overall M-type curve trend, with significant risk fluctuations.

Key words: Arctic route, ship navigation, process safety, Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithm, cloud model