Abstract: Based on the monitoring data of sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration of the Northeast Passage from 1991 to 2019, this paper evaluates the economics of shipping through the Northeast Passage under four shipping modes using two evaluation indicators—the shipping cost of a single voyage and annual profit. The results show that not only do different shipping modes have different effects on the shipping economics of the Northeast Passage, but the retreat of the sea ice also has obvious effects. Without taking into account the inter-annual variation of sea ice, the economic benefits of the direct mode are generally higher than that of the transshipment mode, while those of low-ice-class ships are generally better than those of high-ice-class ships. Considering the inter-annual variation of sea ice, and the decline of sea ice, the economics of shipping through the Northeast Passage has significantly improved, especially for low-ice-class ships.

Key words: Arctic, Northeast Passage, shipping mode, shipping economy