Chinese Journal of Polar Research

ADVANCES IN POLAR SCIENCE ›› 2008, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (2-English): 159-167.

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Modeling Arctic Ocean heat transport and warming episodes in the 20th century caused by the intruding Atlantic Water

Wang Jia1, Jin Meibing2, Jun Takahashi3, Tatsuo Suzuki3, Igor V Polyakov1, Kohei Mizobata4, Moto Ikeda5, Fancois J. Saucier6 and Markus Meier7   

  1. 1 NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, 4840 S State Road, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48108, USA;
    2 International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 930 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA;
    3 Frontier Research Center for Global Change, 3173-25 Showamachi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama City, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan;
    4 Department of Ocean Science, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Tokyo, Japan;
    5 Graduate School of Earth and Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan;
    6 Institute of Ocean Science, University of Quebec at Rimouski, 310 Ursulines Street, Rimouski, G5L 3AI Canada;
    7 Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden
  • Online:1958-06-30 Published:1958-06-30
  • Contact: Wang Jia

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Abstract:

This study investigates the Arctic Ocean warming episodes in the 20th century using both a high-resolution coupled global climate model and historical observations. The model, with no flux adjustment, reproduces well the Atlantic Water core temperature (AWCT) in the Arctic Ocean and shows that four largest decadal-scale warming episodes occurred in the 1930s, 70s, 80s, and 90s, in agreement with the hydrographic observational data. The difference is that there was no pre-warming prior to the 1930s episode, while there were two pre-warming episodes in the 1970s and 80s prior to the 1990s, leading the 1990s into the largest and prolonged warming in the 20th century. Over the last century, the simulated heat transport via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea was estimated to be, on average,31.32 TW and 14.82 TW, respectively,while the Bering Strait also provides 15.94 TW heat into the western Arctic Ocean.Heat transport into the Arctic Ocean by the Atlantic Water via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea correlates significantly with AWCT (C=0.75 ) at 0lag. The modeled North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a significant correlation with the heat transport(C=0.37). The observed AWCT has a significant correlation with both the modeled AWCT (C=0.49) and the heat transport(C=0.41). However,the modeled NAO index does not significantly correlate with either the observed AWCT(C=0.03) or modeled AWCT(C=0.16) at a zero-lag,indicating that the Arctic climate system is far more complex than expected.

Key words: Arctic Ocean, heat transport, warming episodes, modeling