Abstract: To assess the implications of  the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) opening on China’s foreign trade pattern, this paper used the general equilibrium method and combined the shipping cost model with the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, based on the scenarios about the different length of the navigation period of the NEP. Based on existing research, analysis of trade flow and trade structure, as well as dynamic prediction, are added in this paper. The research on the trade impact of the NEP is no longer limited to estimating the trade volume and static prediction. The results show that: (1) China’s foreign trade will benefit from the use of the NEP. In the short, medium, and long term, China’s export volume will increase by an average of 17.49%, 32.84%, and 40.58%. (2) There is a spatial differentiation in the impact of the NEP on the trade between China and different trading partners. For instance, the trade links between China and Russia, Northwestern Europe, and Central and Eastern Europe will be further strengthened. Without considering preferential trading arrangements between China and other trading partners, the scale of China’s exports to East Asia, Southeast Asia, North America, and other countries (regions) in the world may decrease to varying degrees. (3) The use of the NEP has an impact on China’s trade commodity structure, and there is sectoral heterogeneity. For example, in the short term, the export growth of each sector is between 0.40% and 7.23%, and the import growth is between 0.90% and 8.77%. (4) When the HFO ban pushes up the fuel price for the NEP shipping, the trade impact of the NEP will be weakened; when geopolitical conflicts lead to a general increase in the fuel price, the trade impact of the NEP will be strengthened significantly.

Key words: Arctic Northeast Passage, China’s Trade structure, shipping cost model, GTAP model, impact prediction