关键词: 海冰预报, 气象预报, 观测, 数据, 北极

Abstract:

The reduction in the extent of summer sea ice, associated with global climate change, offers the possibility
of new sea routes through the Arctic Ocean. Improving the skill of forecasting sea ice and weather
would strongly support Arctic navigation. Collecting international online information (including observational
data, forecast products, and historical analysis) of the high Arctic, and analyzing the characteristics of
sea ice extent and weather forecast information, could support the development of operational Arctic forecasting
by China. By comparing the information supplied by seven Arctic countries, three non-Arctic countries,
and three international information suppliers, it was found that sea ice and meteorological forecasting
capabilities have improved considerably, although further improvements could be made. For example, observational
data have not been applied fully, the prediction ability in the Central Arctic remains weak, sharing
of forecast information is insufficient, and comparison is needed when using online information. Furthermore,
the development of new information technologies is urgently required. To provide improved and
reliable protection in relation to sea ice and weather for Chinese Arctic expeditions and shipping activities, it
is strongly suggested that investment in Arctic scientific expeditions be increased, and that international cooperation
be sought for the development of forecasting technologies in relation to areas affected by Arctic
sea ice.

Key words: sea ice forecast, weather forecast, observation, data, Arctic