Abstract:

The navigation environment of the Arctic route is highly uncertain and complex. Scientific understanding and effective control of the derived navigation risks is an important basis for full utilization of the Arctic route resources. Therefore, from the perspective of resilience theory, this paper analyzes the risk of Arctic navigation, constructs the resilience cognitive system of Arctic navigation risk, defines the internal logic between risks, establishes the cascade effect analysis model of Arctic navigation risk, and carries out the risk simulation under multiple scenarios with fuzzy cognitive map. The results show that in the Arctic normal risk environment (sea ice and low temperature), the risk cascade effect has four stages, which is most likely to lead to the risks of “extremely low probability of assistance”, “narrow waterway” and “inadequate maintenance”; in the normal risk environment coupling of “low crew suitability” and “narrow international communication channels”, the risk cascade effect has two stages, which is most likely to lead to risks such as “inadequate maintenance”, “extremely low probability of assistance” and “lack of Arctic navigation data”.

Key words: resilience theory, cascade effect, risk analysis, fuzzy cognitive map, Arctic routes