Abstract: The characteristics of the long-term variation of SST anomaly (SSTA), globally and in the Indo–Pacific warm pool (IPWP), were analyzed using statistical methods. A possible relationship between the SSTA of the IPWP and the rapid decline in the rate of Arctic sea ice coverage was considered. It was found that the global SSTA has increased slowly over the last 100 years but with interannual fluctuations. The decadal variation reflected a decelerating tendency, and the long-term variations of the global and IPWP SSTAs were similar. The rate of Arctic sea ice coverage before the early 1980s showed a positive anomaly, whereas it was negative afterwards. The linear rate of decline was established as −1.5% per decade and it was largest during the months of July–October (2.6%, 2.8%, 3.0%, and 2.5% per decade, respectively). Correlation analysis showed the relation between the rapid decline in the rate of Arctic sea ice coverage and the IPWP SSTA variation was close but lagged by about 30 months. The Arctic oscillation might be important in the communication of this relationship. Regression analysis was used to establish a prediction equation relating Arctic sea ice change and the IPWP SSTA, and the variation in the rate of Arctic sea ice coverage for the coming two years was predicted. The results indicated that the anomaly in the rate of Arctic sea ice coverage would be −6.16% in 2015 and 2016. This work provides a theoretical basis for the evaluation of the effects of global climate change.

Key words: Indo–Pacific warm pool, SSTA, Arctic sea ice coverage rate, rapid loss, Arctic oscillation