关键词: 北极航道, 增加值分解, 全球价值链, 互补性

Abstract: Owing to global climate change and Arctic amplification, Arctic sea ice is melting rapidly, significantly increasing the likelihood of routine commercial shipping along the Arctic shipping routes. The adoption of the Arctic routes has led to a substantial increase in trade potential between China and countries along the Northeast Passage. This study is based on the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC Rev4). It focuses on primary industries and 17 manufacturing sectors and calculates the value-added trade between China and the countries along the Arctic route using the method developed by Wang, Wei, and Zhu (WWZ). Additionally, it employs the intra-industry trade index and the modified revealed comparative advantage index (NRCA) to analyze the industrial complementarity between China and these countries. The results of the study show that: (1) China maintains a trade surplus with countries along the Arctic route in primary industries and the 17 manufacturing sectors. Relative to traditional measures of trade, trade in value added reveals a smaller trade surplus for China. (2) There is significant industrial complementarity between China and the countries along the Arctic route. In terms of labor-intensive industries, China demonstrates a clear competitive advantage in textile and garment manufacturing. In terms of technology-intensive industries, China holds a stronger competitive edge in the fields of computer, electronic, and optical equipment, whereas countries such as Denmark and Belgium have a more pronounced competitive advantage in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector.

Key words: Arctic shipping routes, value added decomposition, global value chain, complementarity