极地研究

极地研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 853-869.DOI: 10.13679/j.jdyj.20240008

所属学科：极地政策研究

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

北极航道对中国贸易结构及空间流向的影响研究——基于GTAP模型的测度

姜苗苗, 杨来科   

  1. 华东师范大学经济与管理学院, 上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2024-01-16 修回日期:2024-04-27 出版日期:2025-12-30 发布日期:2026-01-12
  • 通讯作者: 杨来科
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金资助

The impact of Arctic shipping routes on the trade structure and trade flow of China’s foreign trade—Based on the GTAP model

JIANG Miaomiao, YANG Laike   

  1. School of Economic and Management, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2024-01-16 Revised:2024-04-27 Online:2025-12-30 Published:2026-01-12

PDF (PC)

92

摘要： 本文运用一般均衡分析方法, 采用通航期的长度设置情境, 结合航运成本模型和全球贸易分析模型(GTAP), 预估北极东北航道开通对中国对外贸易结构及空间流向的动态影响。基于目前研究基础上, 为使北极东北航道的贸易影响研究不会局限于贸易总量估计和静态预测, 增加了对贸易流向和贸易结构的分析以及动态预测。研究结果表明: (1)中国对外贸易将会从北极东北航道的使用中获益。在短期、中期和长期情境下, 中国的出口规模将分别平均提升17.49%、32.84%和40.58%。(2)北极东北航道开通将会对中国与其不同贸易伙伴间的贸易影响存在空间分化。中国更多的出口将会流向俄罗斯、西北欧和中东欧等地区。在不考虑中国与其他贸易伙伴存在优惠贸易安排的条件下, 中国对东亚、东南亚、北美和世界其他国家(地区)的出口规模可能会出现不同程度的下降。(3)北极东北航道的使用将会对中国的贸易商品结构产生影响, 并会存在部门异质性。如, 短期内各部门的出口增幅会分布于0.40%~7.23%之间, 进口增幅将位于0.90%~ 8.77%之间。(4)当重油禁令推高航运企业经北极东北航道的燃油价格时, 北极东北航道开通的贸易影响将被削弱; 当地缘政治冲突引起燃油价格普遍上涨时, 北极东北航道开通的贸易影响将会显著扩大。

关键词: 北极东北航道, 中国贸易结构, 航运成本模型, GTAP模型, 影响预估

Abstract: To assess the implications of  the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) opening on China’s foreign trade pattern, this paper used the general equilibrium method and combined the shipping cost model with the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, based on the scenarios about the different length of the navigation period of the NEP. Based on existing research, analysis of trade flow and trade structure, as well as dynamic prediction, are added in this paper. The research on the trade impact of the NEP is no longer limited to estimating the trade volume and static prediction. The results show that: (1) China’s foreign trade will benefit from the use of the NEP. In the short, medium, and long term, China’s export volume will increase by an average of 17.49%, 32.84%, and 40.58%. (2) There is a spatial differentiation in the impact of the NEP on the trade between China and different trading partners. For instance, the trade links between China and Russia, Northwestern Europe, and Central and Eastern Europe will be further strengthened. Without considering preferential trading arrangements between China and other trading partners, the scale of China’s exports to East Asia, Southeast Asia, North America, and other countries (regions) in the world may decrease to varying degrees. (3) The use of the NEP has an impact on China’s trade commodity structure, and there is sectoral heterogeneity. For example, in the short term, the export growth of each sector is between 0.40% and 7.23%, and the import growth is between 0.90% and 8.77%. (4) When the HFO ban pushes up the fuel price for the NEP shipping, the trade impact of the NEP will be weakened; when geopolitical conflicts lead to a general increase in the fuel price, the trade impact of the NEP will be strengthened significantly.

Key words: Arctic Northeast Passage, China’s Trade structure, shipping cost model, GTAP model, impact prediction