极地研究

极地研究 ›› 2026, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 355-368.DOI: 10.13679/j.jdyj.20250010

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    

基于多源数据的近年来南极冰架变化趋势分析

吴昀锶1,2,3  王泽民1,2,3  张保军1,2,3   

  1. 1武汉大学测绘学院中国南极测绘研究中心, 湖北 武汉 430079;
    2武汉大学极地环境监测与公共治理教育部重点实验室, 湖北 武汉 430079;
    3武汉大学测绘学院, 湖北 武汉 430079
  • 收稿日期:2025-02-21 修回日期:2025-05-23 出版日期:2026-09-30 发布日期:2026-10-22
  • 通讯作者: 王泽民
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(42676317, 42676318)资助

Analysis of Antarctic ice shelf change trends based on multi-source data

WU Yunsi1,2,3, WANG Zemin1,2,3, ZHANG Baojun1,2,3 #br#   

  1. 1Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping Research, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China;
    2Key Laboratory of Polar Environmental Monitoring and Public Governance, Ministry of Education (Wuhan University),
    Wuhan 430079, China;
    3School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
  • Received:2025-02-21 Revised:2025-05-23 Online:2026-09-30 Published:2026-10-22

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摘要： 南极冰的物质损失很大一部分是通过冰架流向海洋实现的, 冰架稳定有助于防止南极冰盖迅速崩塌。冰架的面积和厚度变化与冰架质量变化直接相关, 影响着冰架的稳定性。本文基于光学遥感影像和现有数据集绘制了全南极近40年的冰架前缘线, 得到了145个冰架1984—2023年的面积变化。这些冰架总面积的净损失为76905.18 km2(约4.43%); 其中, Flichner和Brunt Stancomb等37个冰架面积总体递增, 共增长18006.25 km2(约6.27%); Ronne、Wilkins和Crosson等108个冰架面积总体递减, 共减少94911.43 km2(约6.41%)。本文同时基于卫星测高数据对冰架厚度数据集进行了补充, 得到了56个冰架自1992—2023年的厚度变化; 其中, 22个冰架厚度有所增加, 显著增厚的有Publications(约150.2%)和Ninnis(约36.49%)等冰架; 34个冰架厚度变薄, 显著减薄的有Crosson(约33.7%)、Thwaites(约29.56%)和Land(约28.11%)等冰架。西南极冰架无论是面积还是厚度, 其变化均较东南极冰架更为剧烈。对冰架面积、厚度变化与冰架所处流域的接地线冰通量、冰山崩解等影响因素的相关性分析显示存在明显的区域性差异。尽管冰架面积变化情况相对复杂, 但总体上可被归纳为8个类别。

关键词: 南极冰架, 冰架面积, 冰架厚度, 相关性分析

Abstract:

Antarctic ice shelves play a critical role in regulating the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet by buttressing inland ice and limiting its discharge into the surrounding oceans. Consequently, changes in ice shelf extent and thickness are important indicators of ice shelf stability and have significant implications for future sea-level rise. To investigate long-term variations in Antarctic ice shelves, optical remote sensing imagery (Landsat and MODIS) and multiple existing geospatial datasets were integrated to map Antarctic ice shelf fronts over the past four decades and quantify changes in ice shelf area. A total of 145 ice shelves were analyzed over the period 1984 to 2023. The results indicate a net loss of 76905.18 km², corresponding to 4.43% of the total ice shelf area during the study period. Among the analyzed ice shelves, 37 exhibited an overall expansion trend, including the Flichner and Brunt Stancomb ice shelves, with a cumulative area increase of 18006.25 km² (6.27%). In contrast, 108 ice shelves showed a net reduction in area, including the Ronne, Wilkins, and Crosson ice shelves, resulting in a cumulative area loss of 94911.43 km² (6.41%). To further investigate the coupled evolution of ice shelf geometry, an ice shelf thickness dataset derived from satellite altimetry observations was compiled and extended to cover 56 ice shelves during the period 1992 to 2023. Analysis of thickness changes revealed that 22 ice shelves experienced net thickening, with particularly pronounced increases observed for Publications Ice Shelf (150.2%) and Ninnis Ice Shelf (36.49%). Conversely, 34 ice shelves experienced thinning, with significant thinning observed in Crosson (33.7%), Thwaites (29.56%), and Land ice shelves (28.11%). Spatial analysis revealed pronounced regional contrasts, with ice shelves in West Antarctica exhibiting substantially greater variability in both area and thickness than those in East Antarctica. To explore the mechanisms driving ice shelf evolution, correlations were examined between observed changes in ice shelf area and thickness and potential controlling factors, including grounding discharge and iceberg calving. The results demonstrate that the relative influence of these factors varies considerably among individual ice shelves and across different regions of Antarctica, highlighting the complexity of ice shelf responses to environmental forcing. Despite the complexity and diversity of the observed ice shelf responses, a generalized classification framework comprising eight distinct change patterns was identified. 


Key words: Antarctica ice shelf, area of ice shelf, thickness of ice shelf, correlation analysis