极地研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 72-82.DOI: 10.13679/j.jdyj.20220420

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

面向海洋科考调查的南极宇航员海海浪风险分析

曹磊1,2  王子珂1,2  孟繁超1,2  郭灿文1,2  赵龙飞1,2   

  1. 1国家海洋信息中心, 天津  300171;  
    2自然资源部海洋信息技术创新中心, 天津  300171
  • 出版日期:2023-03-31 发布日期:2023-03-18
  • 通讯作者: 赵龙飞
  • 作者简介:曹磊, 男, 1987年生。硕士, 工程师, 主要从事极地信息化建设、海洋数据挖掘分析。E-mail: hycaolei@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    极地考察业务化与科研项目(921117311)资助

Wave risk analysis for oceanographic survey in Cosmonaut Sea, Antarctica

Cao Lei1,2, Wang Zike1,2, Meng Fanchao1,2, Guo Canwen1,2, Zhao Longfei1,2   

  1. 1 National Marine Data and Information Service, Tianjin 300171, China;
    2 Technology Innovation Center of Marine Information, MNR, Tianjin 300171, China
  • Online:2023-03-31 Published:2023-03-18

摘要: 海浪风险分析是保障海洋科考调查活动安全的重要手段, 现行海浪风险研究主要是面向沿海地区的海洋工程, 利用波浪极值统计分析技术推算重现期, 而海洋科考调查与海洋工程的波浪适应性区别较大, 故现有极值方法不适用于海洋科考调查活动。本文提出了一种面向海洋科考调查的海浪风险分析方法, 综合考虑了海浪事件危险性和海洋科考调查脆弱性, 构建多级海浪事件危险性评价指标体系, 研究海洋科考调查作业脆弱性分析方法, 构建海浪综合风险评估模型, 绘制形成海浪风险等级区划。该方法在南大洋宇航员海及其附近海域进行了应用验证, 提出的模型方法可以有效地评估海浪风险, 能为海洋科考调查站位设计、作业窗口期规划、航线规划等工作提供有效支撑。

关键词: 海浪, 风险分析, 海洋科考调查, 南极, 宇航员海

Abstract: Risk analysis of wave events is an important means of ensuring the safety of oceanographic surveys. Previous wave risk studies mainly focused on coastal ocean engineering, essentially calculating the return period using extreme-value statistics. This method is not applicable to oceanographic surveys because of wave adaptability differences. This study proposes a new model to analyze wave event risks for oceanographic surveys. The model comprehensively considered the specific vulnerabilities of oceanographic survey activities, as well as wave event hazards. An index system was designed to hierarchize the hazards and an analytical method was established to identify vulnerabilities of oceanographic surveys. Wave risk level patterns were drawn from the model results. The method was evaluated in the Southern Ocean. Results showed that the proposed model effectively assessed the risk of wave events and provided crucial information for the design of oceanographic survey stations and the selection of operation periods and ship routes

Key words: ocean wave, risk analysis, oceanographic survey, Antarctica, Cosmonaut Sea