关键词: 冰冻圈;气候变化;数值模式;情景预测

Abstract:

The modeling simulation and modeling prediction of each component (sea ice,snow and frozen ground,ice sheet and shelves,glacier and ice cap,lake and river ice) of the Cryosphere is reviewed. Firstly,the ability of the modeling simulation to reproduce each component’s changes observed during the last decades is investigated. Secondly,the reliability of the modeling prediction to project over the 21st century is assessed. The conclusion is drawn: the seasonal and interannual variability of some components (eg. sea ice) observed on the large scale is successfully reproduced by current models,and the ability of simulation is greatly improved. On the other hand,the dynamical and thermal process of some components (eg. ice sheet) is not well represented in models,even some components' (eg. river ice) models are based on statistics. The development of models is not equivalent among the cryosphere components. The uncertainty of current simulation and prediction of global cryosphere by models always exist. All the uncertainty is mainly from the detail of physical process which is poorly understood. The physical process and observation research on cryosphere components is urgently needed.