极地研究 ›› 2015, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 289-297.DOI: 10.13679/j.jdyj.2015.3.289

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

东北航线驱动下环渤海港口规模雁阵演化研究

李贺1 李振福2   

  1. 1 中交第三航务工程勘察设计院有限公司,上海 200032; 2大连海事大学,交通运输管理学院,辽宁 大连 116026
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-20 修回日期:2014-05-15 出版日期:2015-09-30 发布日期:2015-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 李振福
  • 基金资助:

    国家重大项目;国家社科基金项目;国家自然科学基金项目

EVOLUTION OF THE FLYING GEESE MODEL FOR BOHAI SEAPORTS WITH OPENING OF THE NORTHEAST PASSAGE

Li He1, Li Zhenfu2   

  1. 1 CCCC Third Harbor Consultants Co, Ltd., Shanghai 200032, China; 2 College of Transportation Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
  • Received:2014-03-20 Revised:2014-05-15 Online:2015-09-30 Published:2015-09-30

摘要: 东北航线作为北极航线的重要组成部分,相比于西北航线,对于我国而言拥有更大的利用价值,尤其对中国经济发展、海运贸易、港口规模等有着巨大影响。因此,以东北航线为研究切入点,以环渤海港口为研究对象,在总结海运航线与港口规模存在密切联系基础上,从微观层面重点分析了东北航线对环渤海港口的货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量及经济效益三大主要指标的影响,进而采用主成分分析法对东北航线开通前后的环渤海港口进行了综合评分比较,指出东北航线开通不会打破现阶段环渤海港口的整体雁阵模式,但同一层次不同港口的发展位序将会发生改变,并针对不同层次的港口提出了不同的发展建议。

关键词: 东北航线, 港口规模, 雁阵模式

Abstract: As an important part of Arctic routes, compared with Northwest Passage, Northeast Passage has a greater value to our country, and it has huge impact on economic development, marine trade, and port scale etc. Therefore, based on summing the close contact of shipping routes and port scale, the paper refers Bohai sea ports as the research object, and mainly analyses the impact Northeast Passage has on the cargo throughput, container throughput and operational efficiency for Bohai ports. Then the paper deeply analyses the comprehensive scores before and after the opening of Northeast Passage with principal component analysis, indicating that the opening will not break the current stage of Flying Geese Model of Bohai sea ports, but the development order for different ports will change in the same level. So, in response to this situation, the paper puts forward different development proposals to these ports.

Key words: Northeast Passage, port scale, Flying Geese Model