关键词: 西北航道 , 风能开发 , 三角模糊数 , 等级区划 , 宏观选址

Abstract:

The grade division of wind energy development is the main basis of site selection for wind power generation. To address the problem of offshore wind energy location in the Arctic Northwest Passage, a set of evaluation systems of wind energy development grades with polar region characteristics was established, which was analyzed by combining with a comprehensive evaluation model (CA-SSTFN) based on triangular fuzzy number stochastic simulation. According to the comparison test results between the model and the evaluation technologies of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy AHP, CA-SSTFN can objectively realize the fusion and reasoning of multi-source environmental information, and the evaluation results expressed in the form of confidence intervals provide more information on the reliability of the evaluation results than do the results of existing conventional methods. The evaluation results are more consistent with the actual situation and have good evaluation performance. At the same time, the model also has updating capability based on information detection, which can realize real-time or quasi-real-time evaluation of value. Finally, the central sea area of Amundsen Bay was taken as an example for analysis. The results indicate that the value of wind energy development in this sea area is generally good, especially in summer, which is also the best passage period for the current Northwest Passage, adding value to wind energy development. Overall, the recommended development pilot area is in the region of 70.5°N, 124°W.