极地研究

极地研究 ›› 2010, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (1-English): 11-21.DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1085.2010.00011

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

Antarctica Sea-ice Oscillation and Its Possible Impact on Monsoon of South Sea

Bian Lingen1, Lin Xuechun2 and Xia Lan1   

  1. 1 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
    2 National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 100081, China
  • 出版日期:1960-03-30 发布日期:1960-03-30
  • 通讯作者: Bian Lingen

Antarctica Sea-ice Oscillation and Its Possible Impact on Monsoon of South Sea

Bian Lingen1, Lin Xuechun2 and Xia Lan1   

  1. 1 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
    2 National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 100081, China
  • Online:1960-03-30 Published:1960-03-30
  • Contact: Bian Lingen

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摘要：

Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index with a seesaw pattern is defined using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis girds data of monthly Antarctica sea-ice concentration from1979 to 2002. The relationships between the index of winter and the summer precipitations in China as well as the on set date of the summer East Asia monsoon are presented. The study result shows that the grids of correlation coefficients passed 5% confidence level between Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index and Antarctic sea-ice concentration are more than 1/3 of all grids of Antarctica sea-ice, that means the index can represent 1/3 sea-ice area. The winter index has a significant correlation with abnormal summer (June-August) precipitation in China. The area of positive correlation lies in the Yangtze River basin and its south, and that of negative correlation lies mainly in the north of Yangtze River basin. While the winter index is positive (negative), the onset date of South China Sea monsoon is earlier (later), with aprobability of 79%  (80%). Consequently, a conceptual model is given in term of discussing the possible process between the winter Antarctic sea ice and the monsoon precipitation in China.

关键词: Antarctica sea-ice oscillation index, summer precipitation, East Asia monsoon

Abstract:

Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index with a seesaw pattern is defined using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis girds data of monthly Antarctica sea-ice concentration from1979 to 2002. The relationships between the index of winter and the summer precipitations in China as well as the on set date of the summer East Asia monsoon are presented. The study result shows that the grids of correlation coefficients passed 5% confidence level between Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index and Antarctic sea-ice concentration are more than 1/3 of all grids of Antarctica sea-ice, that means the index can represent 1/3 sea-ice area. The winter index has a significant correlation with abnormal summer (June-August) precipitation in China. The area of positive correlation lies in the Yangtze River basin and its south, and that of negative correlation lies mainly in the north of Yangtze River basin. While the winter index is positive (negative), the onset date of South China Sea monsoon is earlier (later), with aprobability of 79%  (80%). Consequently, a conceptual model is given in term of discussing the possible process between the winter Antarctic sea ice and the monsoon precipitation in China.

Key words: Antarctica sea-ice oscillation index, summer precipitation, East Asia monsoon