极地研究

极地研究

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Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation under the abrupt4xCO2 scenario

YU Xiaoyong1, Annette Rinke1,2, JI Duoying1, CUI Xuefeng1 & John C.Moore1*   

  1. 1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2 Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
  • 出版日期:1964-12-30 发布日期:1964-12-30
  • 通讯作者: John C.Moore

Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation under the abrupt4xCO2 scenario

YU Xiaoyong1, Annette Rinke1,2, JI Duoying1, CUI Xuefeng1 & John C.Moore1*   

  1. 1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2 Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
  • Online:1964-12-30 Published:1964-12-30
  • Contact: John C.Moore

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摘要： We analyze sea ice changes from eight different earth system models that have conducted experiment abrupt4xCO2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In response to abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial levels, Arctic temperatures dramatically rise by about 10°C—16°C in winter and the seasonal sea ice cycle and sea ice concentration are significantly changed compared with the pre-industrial control simulations (piControl). Changes of Arctic sea ice concentration are spatially correlated with temperature patterns in all seasons and highest in autumn. Changes in sea ice are associated with changes in atmospheric circulation patterns at heights up to the jet stream. While the pattern of sea level pressure changes is generally similar to the surface air temperature change pattern, the wintertime 500 hPa circulation displays a positive Pacific North America (PNA) anomaly under abrupt4xCO2-piControl. This large scale teleconnection may contribute to, or feedback on, the simulated sea ice cover change and is associated with an intensification of the jet stream over East Asia and the north Pacific in winter.

关键词: Arctic, sea ice, atmospheric circulation, abrupt4xCO2

Abstract: We analyze sea ice changes from eight different earth system models that have conducted experiment abrupt4xCO2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In response to abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial levels, Arctic temperatures dramatically rise by about 10°C—16°C in winter and the seasonal sea ice cycle and sea ice concentration are significantly changed compared with the pre-industrial control simulations (piControl). Changes of Arctic sea ice concentration are spatially correlated with temperature patterns in all seasons and highest in autumn. Changes in sea ice are associated with changes in atmospheric circulation patterns at heights up to the jet stream. While the pattern of sea level pressure changes is generally similar to the surface air temperature change pattern, the wintertime 500 hPa circulation displays a positive Pacific North America (PNA) anomaly under abrupt4xCO2-piControl. This large scale teleconnection may contribute to, or feedback on, the simulated sea ice cover change and is associated with an intensification of the jet stream over East Asia and the north Pacific in winter.

Key words: Arctic, sea ice, atmospheric circulation, abrupt4xCO2