极地研究

极地研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 279-293.DOI: 10. 13679/j.jdyj.20200016

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于模糊层次分析-多级可拓的北极东北航线不同航段风险评价

何佩龙1; 马晓雪1;张靖雯1; 乔卫亮2   

  1. 1大连海事大学公共管理与人文艺术学院, 辽宁 大连 116026;  2大连海事大学轮机工程学院, 辽宁 大连 116026
  • 收稿日期:2020-03-13 修回日期:2020-05-17 出版日期:2021-06-30 发布日期:2021-05-31
  • 通讯作者: 马晓雪
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金(19BZZ104 , 14BZZ070)，中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(3132019346)

Risk evaluation of different legs of Northeast Arctic route based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process—multilevel extension

He Peilong1, Ma Xiaoxue1, Zhang Jingwen1, Qiao Weiliang2   

  1. 1Public Administration and Humanities College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, China;  2Marine Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, China
  • Received:2020-03-13 Revised:2020-05-17 Online:2021-06-30 Published:2021-05-31
  • Contact: Ma Xiaoxue

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摘要： 北极东北航线经度跨度大, 海区地理环境复杂, 其不同航段的通航环境在自然环境和人为干预的影响下, 存在较大的差异性。不同航段的差异性分析对保障航行安全具有重要意义。结合模糊层次分析法(Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, FAHP)和多级可拓理论, 基于构建的北极东北航线风险评价指标体系, 对北极东北航线不同航段的风险水平进行评价分析。结果表明: (1)冰情、温度、能见度、航道条件、航海保障能力是影响东北航线航行风险最重要的5大因素; (2)各航段安全风险存在明显差异, 东西伯利亚海-德朗海峡航段多数指标风险水平较高; (3)风险评价结果与现实状况基本吻合, 可为保障北极东北航线安全提供重要参考。

关键词: 北极东北航线, 五大航段, 模糊AHP, 多级可拓评价

Abstract: The Northeast Arctic route has a long span, and the geographical environment of the sea area is complex. Under the influence of the natural environment and human intervention, there are great differences in the navigation environments of different legs of this route. Analysis of the differences between different legs is of great significance to ensure navigation safety. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method and multi-level extension theory were combined to evaluate and analyze the risk levels of different legs of the Northeast Arctic route based on the risk evaluation index system of the Northeast Arctic route. The results show that (1) ice conditions, temperature, visibility, channel conditions, and navigation support capabilities are the five most important factors affecting navigation risks along the Northeast Arctic route; (2) there are obvious differences in the safety risks of each leg, and the risk level of most indicators for the East Siberian Sea–Delang Channel leg is relatively high; (3) the risk assessment results are basically consistent with the actual situation, which can provide an important reference for ensuring the safety of the Northeast Arctic route.

Key words: Northeast Arctic route, five legs, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, multi-level extension evaluation