极地研究

极地研究 ›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 49-57.DOI: 10.13679/j.jdyj.2016.1.049

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

印太暖池区域海温异常与北极海冰变化的联系

陈迪1,高山红1,陈锦年2   

  1. 1.中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院，山东 青岛 266100
    2中国科学院海洋研究所，山东 青岛 266071
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-31 修回日期:2015-10-27 出版日期:2016-03-30 发布日期:2016-03-30
  • 通讯作者: 陈锦年
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项: 暖池季节-年代际变异与海气耦合过程(XDA11010102)﹑国家重点基础研究发展计划: 热带太平洋海洋环流与暖池的结构特征、变异机理和气候效应(2012CB417402)专项资助

Impact of the indo-pacific warm pool SST anomaly on Arctic sea ice variation

Chen Di1, Gao Shanhong1, Chen Jinnian2   

  1. 1College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China； 2Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
  • Received:2015-07-31 Revised:2015-10-27 Online:2016-03-30 Published:2016-03-30

PDF (PC)

1399

被引次数

5

摘要： 采用统计方法, 分析了全球海洋表层海温和印太暖池区域海表温度的长期变化特征, 探讨了热带印度洋-西太平洋(印太暖池)海表温度异常(SSTA)与北极海冰快速消融之间的可能联系。结果表明, 从整体来看, 百年来全球SSTA呈现缓慢升高, 但期间也存在年际变化的波动, 近10年来全球SSTA升高有减缓的趋势, 印太暖池区域的SSTA长期变化与全球基本一致。而北极海冰覆盖率自上世纪80年代初由正距平转换为负距平, 且以－1.5%/10年的速度快速减少, 每年7―10月的海冰覆盖率减少速度最快, 分别为－2.6%/10a、－2.8%/10a、－3.0%/10a和－2.5%/10a。由相关分析可知, 北极海冰覆盖率的快速减少与印太暖池区域SSTA变化存在密切联系, 它们之间存在准两年的显著相关。这种联系的重要途径是通过北极涛动(AO)作为桥梁来完成的。采用回归分析, 首次建立了夏秋季北极海冰变化与印太暖池区域SSTA之间的预报方程, 并对未来两年北极海冰的变化进行了预测试验, 2015年和2016年6―10月北极海冰覆盖率异常变化均为－6.16%, 仍为快速减少的两年。这一工作对北极海冰变化的深入研究和预测具有一定的推动作用, 对全球气候变化的评估提供了理论依据。

关键词: 印太暖池区域, SSTA, 北极海冰覆盖率, 快速减少, 北极涛动　

Abstract: The characteristics of the long-term variation of SST anomaly (SSTA), globally and in the Indo–Pacific warm pool (IPWP), were analyzed using statistical methods. A possible relationship between the SSTA of the IPWP and the rapid decline in the rate of Arctic sea ice coverage was considered. It was found that the global SSTA has increased slowly over the last 100 years but with interannual fluctuations. The decadal variation reflected a decelerating tendency, and the long-term variations of the global and IPWP SSTAs were similar. The rate of Arctic sea ice coverage before the early 1980s showed a positive anomaly, whereas it was negative afterwards. The linear rate of decline was established as −1.5% per decade and it was largest during the months of July–October (2.6%, 2.8%, 3.0%, and 2.5% per decade, respectively). Correlation analysis showed the relation between the rapid decline in the rate of Arctic sea ice coverage and the IPWP SSTA variation was close but lagged by about 30 months. The Arctic oscillation might be important in the communication of this relationship. Regression analysis was used to establish a prediction equation relating Arctic sea ice change and the IPWP SSTA, and the variation in the rate of Arctic sea ice coverage for the coming two years was predicted. The results indicated that the anomaly in the rate of Arctic sea ice coverage would be −6.16% in 2015 and 2016. This work provides a theoretical basis for the evaluation of the effects of global climate change.

Key words: Indo–Pacific warm pool, SSTA, Arctic sea ice coverage rate, rapid loss, Arctic oscillation